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journalArticle
Hübler
Clemens
Rolfes
Raimund
climate change
fatigue
imprecise probabilities
scattering environmental conditions
uncertainty
wind energy
Analysis of the influence of climate change on the fatigue lifetime of offshore wind turbines using imprecise probabilities
When discussing the connection of wind energy and climate change, normally, the potential of wind energy to reduce green house gas emissions is emphasised. Hence, effects of wind energy on climate change are analysed. However, what about the other direction? What is the impact of climate change on wind energy? Recently, the effect of a reversal in global terrestrial stilling,that is, an increase in global wind speeds in the last decade, on the wind energy production has been analysed. Certainly, knowledge about potential changes in energy production is essential to plan future energy supply. Nonetheless, at least similarly important is the effect on loads acting on wind turbines. Increasing loads due to higher wind speeds might reduce wind turbine lifetimes and yield higher costs. Moreover, especially for already existing turbines, it might even affect the structural reliability. Since the impact of climate change on wind turbine loads is largely unknown, it is studied in this work in more detail. For this purpose, different existing models for predicted changes in wind speed and air temperature and their uncertainties are used to forecast the environmental conditions an exemplary offshore wind turbine is exposed to. Subsequently, for this turbine, the lifetime fatigue damages are calculated for different prediction models. It is shown that the expected changes in lifetime fatigue damages are present but relatively small compared to other uncertainties in the fatigue damage calculation.
13/09/2020
en
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/we.2572
2020-11-04 07:43:15
Wiley Online Library
_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/we.2572
Wind Energy
n/a
n/a
DOI 10.1002/we.2572
ISSN 1099-1824